Using Behavioral Economics to Keep Resolutions

In 2010, David Cameron set up the “Behavioral Insights Team” (nicknamed the “Nudge Unit”) to use behavioural economics to “nudge” individuals to take superior decisions for themselves and society, e.g. save more, register as organ donors, or give to charity. It uses Randomized Control Trials (RCTs) to find the method that best works – similar to clinical trials in medicine. The establishment of BIT was inspired by Cameron reading the book “Nudge” by Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein, and Thaler (one of the pioneers of behavioural economics) was heavily involved. BIT had their annual “Behavioural Exchange” conference in Westminster in September 2015 and I was privileged to give a shortened version of my TEDx talk showing that social responsibility improves profit, in contrast to the conventional view that it’s at the expense of profit. But, the greater privilege was the chance to learn from the leading behavioural thinkers in the world, e.g. Thaler, Daniel Kahneman (Nobel Laureate), Dan Ariely (author of Predictably Irrational), Hal Varian (Chief Economist of Google). Over the next few blog posts I will share the leading insights of the conference.

Today I’ll start with what I thought to be the single most powerful idea, which I immediately started using in my own life. It’s from Dan Ariely, one of my favorite behavioral thinkers and giver of some of my very favorite TED talks (here is a blog post on my top 10 TED talks). It was in a session entitled “Nudging for International Development” – but the idea turned out to be one that you can apply just as much to individual habits as world economic problems.

Here’s the experiment he ran. He used a RCT to study the best way to persuade adults in a developing country to save money. Here are the different treatments he used:

1) A text message saying “Please try to save 100 shillings by the end of the week”

2) A text message signed by their kids saying “Hey Mom/Dad, please try  to save 100 shillings by the end of the week”. (The text still came from the experimenters – the parents knew that their kids don’t have cellphones – but signing it with their kids’ names prompted them to think of their kids when making the saving decision).

3) A 10% or 20% post-match – i.e. the experimenter gave you an extra 10% or 20% (depending on the treatment) of what you saved by the end of the week.

4) A 10% or 20% pre-match. Similar to the above, but you’re given the bonus at the start of the week, and it’s taken away from you if you fail to save 100 shillings. This is intended to exploit the “endowment effect”. People value something more highly if they have it than if they don’t, so giving them a reward and threatening to take it away may be more powerful than giving it at the end.

5) A gold coin. At the end of the day, you used the coin to scratch either a “Yes” or “No” box according to what you saved that day.

Dan asked the audience which they thought worked the best. The audience seemed split between 2), 4), and 5) (with a bit less suggesting 3). But, the coin turned out to be the most effective by a substantial margin. Here’s why. The coin scratch is much more salient and timely. The bonus pays off only at the end of the week. So, it encourages procrastination – you can spend today, and dupe yourself into thinking you’ll save tomorrow. The same goes for the text message – you think you’ll recover and still hit the weekly target. The coin scratch encourages you to save every day. And it “gamifies” saving. Adults feel they’ve achieved something when, at the end of the day, they scratch the “Yes” box. Note that, if they don’t save, they don’t simply do nothing – they’re asked to actively scratch the “No” box, i.e. admit to themselves that they’ve failed to save.

Although Dan didn’t explicitly draw the implications for our own lives (he only had 8 minutes), I thought that this is something we can instantly apply to develop good habits. That same evening, I created a spreadsheet with a list of things that I would like to achieve each day. Every day, at the end of the day, I have to put a tick or a cross according to whether I’ve achieved it. These goals will vary from person to person, but I’m happy to share a few of mine:

1) Did I end the day with zero emails in my inbox? Typically, I don’t, which leads to the inbox getting more and more cluttered over time. (Note, this doesn’t mean I reply to every email – that’s unrealistic – but I file them for future reply by a particular deadline. See an earlier blog post, “Time Management Tips to Improve Your Productivity“, for more on dealing with email).

2) Did I go to bed before midnight? If I don’t, I don’t just write a cross, I have to write the number of minutes I exceeded the target by. This is to avoid what Dan called in another session the “what the hell” effect – if I know I’ve missed the deadline, I might as well stay up until 3am.

3) Did I do athletics practice today? (plus a similar box for music practice). We often set resolutions to lose weight, or get better at the guitar. But, these are long-term goals; without daily accountability, they get deprioritized.

4) How many times did I check my iPhone that day? I have an app called Checky which records the number of times I check my phone. I try to get below 20 each day.

5) How much time did I spend on my iPhone that day? Tracked with an app called Moment.

Can a silly little tick or cross – on a sheet of paper no-one else sees – really affect how grown adults behave? Can something intellectually equivalent to a gold star we give to kids make a big difference? Actually, yes. As emphasized by one of my favorite authors Stephen Covey (especially in his books “7 Habits of Highly Effective People” and “First Things First”), people act differently when they keep score. You run faster if you’re carrying a Garmin, you row faster if the display shows your split time. No-one else sees these things but you, but they make a big difference. If you play a racket sport, you’ll play differently in an actual game versus just hitting about, even though only you and your opponent see the score and the score has zero effect on your life. People (including me) invest time playing Fantasy Football even though you win absolutely nothing and the game doesn’t matter – because the score has meaning. So, why don’t we apply the idea of scorekeeping to things that do matter?

Zakat Fitrah

Zakat Fitrah. Di dalam hadis-hadis tentang zakat fitrah, kita akan mendapatkan bahwa zakat fitrah itu berupa tha’aam (makanan). Adapun hadis-hadis itu sebagai berikut:

عَنِ ابْنِ عُمَرَ قَالَ فَرَضَ رَسُولُ اللَّهِ صَلَّى اللَّه عَلَيْهِ وَسَلَّمَ زَكَاةَ الْفِطْرِ صَاعًا مِنْ تَمْرٍ أَوْ صَاعًا مِنْ شَعِيرٍ

Ibnu Umar mengatakan, "Rasulullah saw. mewajibkan zakat fitrah satu shaa' dari kurma, atau satu sha dari syair (gandum)” (HR. Al-Bukhari, Shahih Al-Bukhari, II:548, No. hadis 1439)

عَنِ ابْنِ عُمَرَ أَنَّ رَسُولَ اللَّهِ صَلَّى اللَّه عَلَيْهِ وَسَلَّمَ فَرَضَ زَكَاةَ الْفِطْرِ مِنْ رَمَضَانَ عَلَى النَّاسِ صَاعًا مِنْ تَمْرٍ أَوْ صَاعًا مِنْ شَعِيرٍ عَلَى كُلِّ حُرٍّ أَوْ عَبْدٍ ذَكَرٍ أَوْ أُنْثَى مِنَ الْمُسْلِمِينَ

Dari Ibnu Umar bahwa Rasulullah saw. mewajibkan zakat fitrah satu shaa' dari kurma, atau satu shaa’ dari syair (gandum), atas hamba sahaya, orang yang merdeka, laki-laki, perempuan, anak kecil dan dewasa dari kalangan muslimin. (HR. Al-Bukhari, Shahih Al-Bukhari, II:548, No. hadis 1439)

Dari hadis-hadis di atas kita dapat mengetahui bahwa bahwa Rasulullah saw. menetapkan zakat fitrah dengan dua jenis makanan: kurma & gandum.

Apabila hadis-hadis diatas dibaca secara mantuq (makna tersurat) dan konsisten tidak akan menerima mafhum (makna tersirat), maka zakat fitrah yang wajib dikeluarkan terbatas jenisnya, yakni kurma dan gandum. Adapun kata Tha’aam pada hadis Abu Sa’id Al-Khudriy tidak dapat dimaknai makanan secara umum karena sudah ada bayaan tafshiil (keterangan terperinci) pada hadis-hadis di atas.

Berdasarkan pendekatan mantuq hadis-hadis itu, maka zakat fitrah dengan beras atau jagung pada dasarnya tidak sesuai dengan mantuq-nya, kedudukannya sama dengan mengeluarkan dalam bentuk qiimah (harga atau nilai barang).

Namun, benarkah demikian pesan utama Nabi saw., yaitu bahwa zakat fitrah wajib dikeluarkan hanya dalam bentuk kurma dan gandum?

Hemat kami, kalimat min tamrin atau min sya’iir dalam struktur kalimat di atas fungsinya bukan bayaan lit takhsiis (keterangan pengkhusus), melainkan bayaan lit tanshiish (keterangan penegas/prioritas) sesuai dengan situasi dan kondisi muzakki (wajib zakat) dan mustahiq (penerima zakat) di suatu daerah tertentu. Hal itu didasarkan atas pertimbangan sebagai berikut:

Pertama, dari sisi Muzakki
Kedua jenis makanan tersebut pada waktu itu lebih mudah didapat atau biasa dimiliki secara umum. Kondisi ini demikian itu dapat kita peroleh dalam praktik pembayaran zakat fitrah yang dilakukan oleh para sahabat sebagai berikut:

عَنِ ابْنِ عُمَرَ قَالَ : سَمِعْتُ رَسُولَ اللهِ صلى الله عليه وسلم حِينَ فَرَضَ صَدَقَةَ الْفِطْرِ يَقُولُ : صَاعٌ مِنْ تَمْرٍ أَوْ صَاعٌ مِنْ شَعِيرٍ قَالَ : فَكَانَ ابْنُ عُمَرَ لاَ يُخْرِجُ إِلاَّ التَّمْرَ فَفَنِيَ تَمْرُهُ عَامًا فَأخْرَجَ صَاعَ شَعِيرٍ مَكَانَ التَّمْرِ

“Dari Ibnu Umar, ia berkata, “Saya mendengar Rasulullah saw. ketika mewajibkan zakat fitrah, beliau bersabda, ‘Satu sha' kurma, atau satu shaa’ syair (gandum). Nafi berkata, ‘Ibnu Umar Ra. bila berzakat tidak pernah mengeluarkan yang lain selain kurma. Pada suatu tahun ketika kurmanya rusak ia mengeluarkan satu sha’ gandum sebagai pengganti kurma.” HR. Abd bin Humaid, Musnad Abd bin Humaid, I:549, No. 1440)

Dalam riwayat lain, Nafi’ menjelaskan dengan redaksi sebagai berikut:

أَنَّ عَبْدَ اللَّهِ بْنَ عُمَرَ كَانَ لاَ يُخْرِجُ فِي زَكَاةِ الْفِطْرِ إِلاَّ التَّمْرَ إِلاَّ مَرَّةً وَاحِدَةً فَإِنَّهُ أَخْرَجَ شَعِيراً

“Sesungguhnya Ibnu Umar Ra. dalam berzakat fitri tidak pernah mengeluarkan yang lain selain kurma kecuali satu kali, ia mengeluarkan gandum.” HR. Malik, Al-Muwatha :222, No. 778)

فَكَانَ ابْنُ عُمَرَ رَضِيَ اللَّهُ عَنْهُمَا يُعْطِي التَّمْرَ فَأَعْوَزَ أَهْلُ الْمَدِينَةِ مِنْ التَّمْرِ فَأَعْطَى شَعِيرًا

“Ibnu Umar Ra. bila berzakat dia memberikannya dengan kurma. Kemudian penduduk Madinah kesulitan mendapatkan kurma, akhirnya Ibnu Umar mengeluarkan gandum.” HR. Al-Bukhari, Shahih Al-Bukhari, II:549, No. 1440; As-Sunan al-Kubra, IV:160, No. 7467)

Dalam riwayat Abu Dawud dan al-Baihaqi dengan redaksi:

فَأَعْوَزَ أَهْلُ الْمَدِينَةِ التَّمْرَ عَامًا فَأَعْطَى الشَّعِيرَ

“Kemudian penduduk Madinah sulit mendapatkan kurma pada suatu tahun, kemudian ia memberikan gandum.” (Lihat, Sunan Abu Dawud, II:113, No. 1615; As-Sunan al-Kubra, IV:164, No. 7468)

Sehubungan dengan amal Ibnu Umar di atas, Imam al-Baji berkata:

قَوْلُهُ كَانَ لَا يُخْرِجُ فِي زَكَاةِ الْفِطْرِ إِلَّا التَّمْرَ ؛ لِأَنَّهُ كَانَ قُوتَهُ وَقُوتَ أَهْلِ بَلَدِهِ بِالْمَدِينَةِ فَلِذَلِكَ كَانَ يَرَى أَنْ لَا يُجْزِيَهُ غَيْرَ التَّمْرِ وَكَانَ يَقْتَصِرُ عَلَى إخْرَاجِهِ وَيُحْتَمَلُ أَنَّهُ كَانَ يُخْرِجُهُ مَعَ التَّمَكُّنِ مِنْ الشَّعِيرِ وَيَقُوتُ بِهِ ؛ لِأَنَّهُ كَانَ يَرَى أَنَّ التَّمْرَ أَفْضَلُ مِنْهُ وَإِنْ كَانَ الشَّعِيرُ يُجْزِيهِ وَقَدْ قَالَ أَشْهَبُ أَحَبُّ إلَيَّ أَنْ يُخْرَجَ بِالْمَدِينَةِ التَّمْرُ وَوَجْهُ ذَلِكَ أَنَّهُ أَفْضَلُ أَقْوَاتِهِمْ ؛ لِأَنَّهُ لَا يَكَادُ يُقْتَاتُ فِيهَا إِلَّا التَّمْرُ أَوْ الشَّعِيرُ وَأَمَّا اقْتِيَاتُ الْقَمْحِ فَنَادِرٌ

“Perkataanya: ‘Dia (Ibnu Umar) dalam berzakat fitri tidak pernah mengeluarkan yang lain selain kurma,’ karena kurma adalah makanan pokoknya dan makan pokok penduduk Madinah, karena itu ia berpendapat bahwa zakat fitri itu tidak memadai dengan yang lain selain kurma, dan ia membatasi zakat fitri hanya pada kurma. Dan dapat dimaknai pula bahwa, ia mengeluarkan kurma—padahal gandum pun berkedudukan sebagai makanan pokoknya—karena ia berpendapat bahwa kurma lebih utama daripada gandum, meskipun dengan gandum memadai pula. Sungguh Asyhab berkata, ‘Kurma lebih aku sukai untuk dikeluarkan di Madinah.’ Dan aspek pertimbangan itu bahwa kurma adalah makanan pokok mereka yang lebih utama, karena hampir tidak ada makanan di sana selain kurma dan gandum. Adapun makanan pokok berupa qamh (biji gandum) maka jarang.” (Lihat, al-Muntaqa Syarh al-Muwatha, II:45)

Dari sini dapat diambil kesimpulan, sebagaimana dinyatakan Ibnu Hajar, bahwa mereka (para sahabat) dalam berzakat fitri mengeluarkan jenis makanan pokok yang paling utama, dan kurma lebih utama daripada yang lainnya. (Lihat, Fath al-Bari Syarh Shahih al-Bukhari, III:376)

Pertimbangan bahwa kedua jenis makanan: kurma dan gandum, pada waktu itu lebih mudah didapat atau biasa dimiliki secara umum lebih diperkuat dengan sejumlah data faktual yang menunjukkan bahwa pada praktiknya para sahabat memperluas jenis makanan dari yang “ditetapkan” oleh Nabi saw.

Ibnu Umar menjelaskan:

كَانَ النَّاسُ يُخْرِجُونَ عَنْ صَدَقَةِ الْفِطْرِ فِي عَهْدِ النَّبِيِّ صَلَّى اللَّهُ عَلَيْهِ وَسَلَّمَ صَاعًا مِنْ شَعِيرٍ أَوْ تَمْرٍ أَوْ سُلْتٍ أَوْ زَبِيبٍ

"Dahulu orang-orang mengeluarkan zakat fitrah di zaman Nabi saw. sebesar satu sha' sya’iir (gandum), tamr (kurma), atau Sult (sejenis gandum yang berwarna putih tak berkulit) atau Zabiib (anggur kering)." (HR. An-Nasai, Sunan An-Nasai, V:53, No. hadis 2516; As-Sunan Al-Kubra, II:28, No. hadis 2295)

Abu Said al-Khudriy menjelaskan:

كُنَّا نُخْرِجُ زَكَاةَ الْفِطْرِ صَاعًا مِنْ طَعَامٍ أَوْ صَاعًا مِنْ شَعِيرٍ أَوْ صَاعًا مِنْ تَمْرٍ أَوْ صَاعًا مِنْ أَقِطٍ أَوْ صَاعًا مِنْ زَبِيبٍ

“Kami mengeluarkan zakat fitrah 1 sha makanan atau 1 sha sya’ir (gandum), atau tamr (kurma), atau aqith (susu kering/keju), atau Zabiib (kismis/anggur kering).” (HR. Al-Bukhari, Shahih Al-Bukhari, II:548, No. hadis 1439)

Dalam redaksi lain

كُنَّا نُخْرِجُ فِي عَهْدِ رَسُولِ اللَّهِ صَلَّى اللَّهُ عَلَيْهِ وَسَلَّمَ صَاعًا مِنْ تَمْرٍ أَوْ صَاعًا مِنْ شَعِيرٍ أَوْ صَاعًا مِنْ أَقِطٍ لَا نُخْرِجُ غَيْرَهُ

"Kami pernah mengeluarkan zakat fitrah di masa Rasulullah saw. sebesar satu shaa' kurma, satu shaa' gandum atau satu shaa' susu kering. Kami tidak mengeluarkan yang lain." (HR. An-Nasai, Sunan An-Nasai, V:53, No. hadis 2518)

Mengapa jenis makanannya diperluas? Kata Abu Sa’id:

كَانَ طَعَامَنَا الشَّعِيرُ وَالزَّبِيبُ وَالْأَقِطُ وَالتَّمْرُ

“sya’ir (gandum), Zabib (kismis/anggur kering), aqith (susu beku/keju), dan tamr (kurma) adalah makanan kami” (HR. Al-Bukhari, Shahih Al-Bukhari, II:548, No. hadis 1439)

Sehubungan dengan itu, meskipun Rasulullah saw. menetapkan zakat fitrah dengan dua jenis makanan: kurma & gandum, namun bila muzakki berzakat dengan zabiib (anggur kering) dan aqith (keju) maka penyerahan zakat mereka tetap diterima. Ibnu Umar menjelaskan:

أَمَرَنَا رَسُولُ اللَّهِ -صلى الله عليه وسلم- أَنْ نُخْرِجَ زَكَاةَ الْفِطْرِ عَنْ كُلِّ صَغِيرٍ أَوْ كَبِيرٍ وَحُرٍّ وَمَمْلُوكٍ صَاعًا مِنْ تَمْرٍ أَوْ شَعِيرٍ قَالَ وَكَانَ يُؤْتَى إِلَيْهِمْ بِالزَّبِيبِ وَالأَقِطِ فَيَقْبَلُونَهُ

“Rasulullah saw. telah memerintahkan kepada kami agar mengeluarkan zakat fitrah atas anak kecil dan dewasa, orang merdeka dan hamba sahaya, sebesar satu shaa' kurma atau satu shaa’ syair (gandum). Dan diserahkan kepada mereka zabiib dan aqith, maka mereka tetap menerimanya.” (HR. Al-Baihaqi, As-Sunan al-Kubra, IV:175, No. 7528)

Berbagai keterangan di atas menunjukkan bahwa:

Para sahabat memahami hadis Nabi tentang zakat fitrah itu tidak secara mantuq (makna tersurat), namun secara mafhum (makna tersirat), 
Para sahabat memahami hadis itu bukan sebagai takhsis (pengkhususan), hal itu terbukti dengan diperluas jenis makanannya, 
Secara ekonomi, jenis pangan yang dimiliki oleh publik di zaman sahabat sudah lebih berkembang daripada zaman Nabi.

Kedua, dilihat dari sisi mustahiq

Kedua jenis makanan itu (kurma & gandum) lebih bermanfaat untuk orang miskin waktu itu sebagai thu’matan. Dalam hadis diterangkan:

عَنِ ابْنِ عَبَّاسٍ قَالَ فَرَضَ رَسُولُ اللَّهِ صَلَّى اللَّه عَلَيْهِ وَسَلَّمَ زَكَاةَ الْفِطْرِ طُهْرَةً لِلصَّائِمِ مِنَ اللَّغْوِ وَالرَّفَثِ وَطُعْمَةً لِلْمَسَاكِينِ

Dari Ibnu Abas, ia berkata, “Rasulullah saw. mewajibkan zakat fitrah sebagai pensuci bagi yang saum dari ucapan sia-sia dan kotor dan sebagai makanan bagi orang miskin.” (HR. Abu Dawud, Sunan Abu Dawud, I:585, No. Hadis 1609; Ibnu Majah, Sunan Ibnu Majah, I:585, No. Hadis 1827; Ad-Daraquthni, Sunan Ad-Daraquthni, II:138, No. Hadis 1)

Para ulama menjelaskan:

وَطُعْمَةً وَهُوَ الطَّعَامُ الَّذِي يُؤْكَلُ

“Dan kata thu’mah ialah makanan yang disantap.” Dengan perkataan lain, thu’matan adalah makanan mudah saji dan siap santap. (Lihat Al-Ihkam Syarh Ushul al-Ahkam, II:172)

Dengan demikian berdasarkan pendekatan bayan lit tanshish (keterangan penjelas atau prioritas), dapat disimpulkan bahwa yang menjadi pokok kewajiban zakat fitrah itu bukan “barangnya” melainkan “nilainya”, yaitu 1 sha’. Sehubungan dengan itu, Abu Sa’id al-Khudriyi mengatakan:

لاَ أُخْرِجُ أَبَدًا إِلاَّ صَاعًا

“Saya tidak akan mengeluarkan zakat fitri selamanya kecuali sebesar 1 sha’.”

Ukuran 1 sha’ dapat dikonversi dalam ukuran isi (liter), berat (Kg), dan harga (Rp atau mata uang lainnya). Konversi ukuran itu pernah dilakukakan oleh Mu’awiyah sebagaimana diterangkan dalam hadis sebagai berikut:

قَالَ إِنِّي أَرَى أَنَّ مُدَّيْنِ مِنْ سَمْرَاءِ الشَّامِ تَعْدِلُ صَاعًا مِنْ تَمْرٍ فَأَخَذَ النَّاسُ بِذَلِكَ

Ia berkata, “Saya memandang bahwa 2 mud gandum Syam senilai dengan 1 sha kurma.” Maka orang-orang mengambil konversi itu. (HR. Muslim, Shahih Muslim, II:678, No. hadis 985; Abu Dawud, Sunan Abu Dawud, II:113, No. hadis 1616; Al-Baihaqi, As-Sunan Al-Kubra, IV:165, No. hadis 7490)

Atas dasar pertimbangan di atas, hemat kami, para tabi’in sebagai murid shahabat Nabi saw., seperti Umar bin Abdul Aziz, al-Hasan al-Bishri, dan Atha telah menetapkan zakat fitrah oleh harga/uang (dirham). Waktu itu Umar bin Abdul Aziz menetapkan nilai 1 sha = ½ dirham. (lihat, Mushannaf Ibnu AbiuSyaibah, II:398)

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Predicting Mutual Fund Performance Using (Legal) Inside Information

How does an investor choose which mutual fund to invest in? She’ll want a measure of the fund manager’s skill, and the most natural measure is his past performance. But, a ton of research has systematically found that past performance doesn’t predict future performance – it’s irrelevant in choosing a mutual fund.

How can this be? One interpretation is that fund managers aren’t skilled to begin with, and instead any good performance is due to luck. The thinking goes as follows. Skill is permanent. If good past performance were due to skill, performance should stay strong in the future. But, luck’s temporary.  If good past performance were due to luck, performance should revert to the average in the future. Since future performance appears unpredictable, this seems to support the luck explanation. This has huge implications for investors – if mutual fund managers indeed have no skill, there’s no point paying the high fees (around 1.5% per year) associated with actively-managed funds. Instead, put your money in passive index funds (where fees can be as low as 0.1%). Perhaps due to this thinking, passive index funds have grown substantially in recent years.

But an influential 2004 paper by Jonathan Berk (Stanford) and Rick Green (Carnegie Mellon) reached a different conclusion. Fund managers are skilled, and good past performance is a signal of skill. But, because everyone else is trying to invest with a skilled manager, managers with good past performance enjoy a flood of new funds coming in. This increases the fund manager’s assets under management (AuM) and thus his fees (which are a percentage of AuM) and so he won’t discourage the new flows. But, it will worsen his performance next year, because of diminishing returns to scale in investing. The manager has to put the new funds to work. But, he’s already investing in his top stock picks. He can’t put all of the new money in the same stocks, because there’s not enough liquidity in the market to accommodate this extra demand. So, he’ll have to choose his next-best picks, which will do worse. Thus, even though past performance is an indicator of skill, it’s not an indicator of future performance.

What’s the problem here? The analogy is choosing an individual stock. Choosing a stock on the basis of an attractive characteristic that’s known to everyone (e.g. buying Facebook because it’s a leader in social media) won’t be fruitful. Since everyone else is aware of that characteristic, they will have bought into the stock and driven the stock price up – the “Efficient Markets Hypothesis”. Similarly, identifying fund manager skill using a dimension that’s known to everyone (e.g. past performance) is also not fruitful. Since everyone else is aware of past performance, they will have bought into the fund and driven its AuM up, worsening its future performance.

The key to picking a stock is thus to identify positive attributes that might aren’t known to others. Similarly, the key to choosing a mutual fund is to find a measure of skill that isn’t known to others – to have a measure of skill based on private (but legal) inside information. This is where an ingenious new paper by Jonathan, together with Jules van Binsbergen (Wharton) and Binying Liu (Kellogg), entitled “Matching Capital and Labor”, comes in.

A mutual fund is part of a fund family. For example, the Fidelity South East Asia Fund and the Fidelity Low Priced Stock Fund are both part of Fidelity. One of Fidelity’s jobs as a fund family is to evaluate the performance of each fund manager, to decide whether to promote her (i.e. give her an additional fund to manage, or move her to a larger fund) or demote her (take away one of her funds). They have access to a ton of information over and above past performance figures – just like scouting out a baseball player gives you much more information than you’d get from the statistics. For example, they can engage in subjective evaluations of her performance based on on-the-job observation, or assess whether poor performance might actually be due to good long-run investments that just haven’t paid off yet.  Thus, a promotion signals positive private information, and a demotion signals negative private information.  

As an example, take Morris Smith. He joined Fidelity in 1982 and, from 1984-6, ran Fidelity's Select Leisure Fund, which soared from $500k to $350m under his management. In 1986 he was promoted to the Fidelity Over-the-Counter Fund and managed an average of $1b. After further good performance he was promoted to Fidelity's flagship fund in 1990 with assets of $13b.

In short, by observing promotion and demotion decisions (which we can, using data sources such as Morningstar and CRSP), we can infer the fund family’s private information.

Jonathan, Jules, and Binying find that:

1. Promotion and demotion decisions can’t be predicted using data on past performance. In other words, observing such decisions gives investors, additional information over and above what we’d get from past performance figures. It allows us to (legally) infer the fund family’s private information.
2. Promotion and demotion decisions both increase the fund manager’s value added.  The authors measure value added using a metric introduced by an earlier paper by Jonathan and Jules.  This equal’s the fund’s “gross alpha” (its actual return before fees and expenses, minus the return from passively holding the benchmark) multiplied by its assets under management (“AUM”).  This gives a dollar measure of how much value is added (or subtracted) by active management.  That both promotions and demotions increase future value added suggests that promotions give more capital to a skilled manager who can use it effectively, and demotions pull the plug from an unskilled manager who was using capital wastefully.  Thus, the information that promotion/demotion decisions give is not only incremental (to past performance), but also useful.
3. It’s inside information that drives the results.  “External” promotions or demotions (a manager leaving to a new fund family and managing a fund with higher or lower AUM than he did before) have no effect on future value added.
4. These effects are large. The fund family’s decision to promote or demote a manager adds value of $715,000 per manager per month. Thus, 30% of the value that a mutual fund manager adds comes from the fund family giving her the right amount of capital.

Why doesn’t the decision to give a manager a second fund lead to the problem in Berk/Green, that the fund manager now has too much money under her control? Because, the fund family – through its extensive monitoring – estimates the optimal amount of funds to give each manager. It chooses to promote managers who previously had been underallocated funds, so that promotion does not lead to the problem of diminishing returns to scale.

Decades of academic research have failed to find an answer to one of the most important practical questions for investors – how to predict mutual fund performance. Jonathan, Jules, and Binying may have just found a way.

Contoh teks anekdot

Contoh teks anekdot dapat kita temukan dalam banyak tema baik itu anekdot tentang pendidikan, politik, cinta, kehidupan, dan contoh teks anekdot lainnya. Anekdot sendiri secara singkat dapat diartikan sebagai cerita singkat, lucu dan menarik yang menggambarkan kejadian atau peristiwa yang memang benar terjadi. Teks anekdot juga bisa bersifat sindiran atau menggambarkan karakter seseorang dan biasanya anekdot sindiran ini banyak digunakan untuk tujuan politik atau sebagai bentuk kritik.

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Untuk membuat teks anekdot, khususnya anekdot lucu tidaklah sulit seperti membuat karya sastra atau karya ilmiah yang memiliki metode penulisan dan terdapat syarat-syarat penulisan dengan kosa kata yang serba ilmiah dan baku. Sobat bisa membuat anekdot hanya berdasarkan imajinasi untuk menggambarkan suatu kondisi kedalam bentuk tulisan atau teks

Contoh teks anekdot singkat tentang pendidikan kali ini adalah artikel perdana tentang anekdot dan untuk contoh anekdot lainnya insya Allah akan saya posting pada kesempatan lain. Berikut beberapa contoh anekdot tentang pendidikan

Contoh Anekdot

Pak guru sedang menceritakan seorang isssac newton

Guru : " Anak anak... Kalian tau awal mula seorang Issac newton menemukan hukum gravitasi?

Murid : " tidak  Pak...Ceritanya singkat aja ya pak, tuh kelas lain sudah pada pulang

Guru : Bagaimana kalian bisa menjadi seorang Issac kalau fikirannya pulang aja

Guru : Seorang Issac menemukan hukum gravitasi ketika ia duduk di bawah pohon dan buah dari
pohon tersebut jatuh tepat dikepalanya, ia pun bertanya mengapa buah ini jatuh?

Murid : oww,,gitu ya pak..berarti jika issac hanya duduk dikelas dan membaca buku seperti yang kita lakukan saat ini ga akan menemukan apa-apa yach.......

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Seorang gadis kecil pulang dari sekolah sembari menangis ia berkata kepada ibunya

Gadis kecil : " Bu.. Hari ini di sekolah aku dihukum atas dasar sesuatu yang tidak saya lakukan"

Ibu : "Siapa nama gurumu itu? biar ibu bicara dengan dia.."
Tapi...apa yang tidak kamu lakukan itu?

Gadis kecil : "Pekerjaan rumah saya bu....."

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Pak Guru sedang menjelaskan pentingnya taat aturan lalu lintas untuk keselamatan dan berhenti karena ada siswa terlambat dan pak guru bertanya

Pak Guru : "Kenapa kamu terlambat Andy?" 

Andy : "Maaf pak, tadi dijalan saya membaca papan peringatan, karena itu saya terlambat"

Pak Guru : "Maksud kamu, papan peringatan bagaimana?"

Andy : "itu lho pak yang tulisannya Hati-hati tikungan tajam turunkan kecepatan

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Seorang Guru sedang menjelaskan cara membaca peta dan memahami tentang lintang, bujur dan derajat kemudian bertanya kepada para siswa

Pak Guru : "Jika saya meminta kalian untuk makan siang bersama di 22 derajat, 5 menit lintang utara dan 43 derajat, 15 menit bujur timur?

Siswa : "Setelah diam bingung, salah satu siswa menjawab "sebutkan nama warungnya aja pak biar lebih mudah nyarinya

Asuransi Kesehatan Allianz Indonesia

Asuransi kesehatan memberi Anda jaminan terhadap biaya-biaya kesehatan tak terduga. Hal ini meliputi jaminan biaya operasi, rawat inap, rawat jalan, dan periksa gigi—tergantung dengan paket asuransi mana yang Anda ambil. Salah satu penyedia jasa asuransi yang telah memiliki nama ialah Allianz Indonesia. Perusahaan yang berdiri sejak tahun 1980 di Jerman ini menyediakan asuransi yang meliputi asuransi kesehatan, jiwa, syariah dan kumpulan. Hal yang dapat meyakinkan Anda untuk menggunakan jasa Asuransi Kesehatan Allianz Indonesia ialah basis finansial dari perusahaan ini yang selalu stabil sehingga kemungkinan kolapsnya sangat kecil. Dengan demikian Anda tidak perlu khawatir akan kehilangan uang Anda secara sia-sia karena menginvestasikannya di perusahaan asuransi yang rentan terancam bangkrut.

Asuransi kesehatan Allianz Indonesia menawarkan beberapa opsi pilihan asuransi yang dapat Anda pilih sesuai dengan kebutuhan Anda. Pilihan pertama ialah Allianz SmartMed Premier yang memiliki frekuensi pembayaran premi 1 bulan, 3 bulan, 6 bulan dan tahunan. Dengan mengambil Allianz SmartMed Premier, Anda dapat memperoleh manfaat asuransi kesehatan yang lengkap dan sesuai kebutuhan Anda. Hal tersebut meliputi fasilitas rawat inap, rawat jalan dan gigi, serta kelahiran. Sistem yang ditawarkan ialah fasilitas cashless dimana pengguna asuransi kesehatan jenis ini dapat menggunakan kartu yang tinggal digesek untuk jenis pelayanan rawat inap VIP dan kelahiran di seluruh rumah sakit rekanan di Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapura, serta rawat jalan dan gigi (khusus jaringan lokal Indonesia). Selain itu terdapat pula fasilitas penggantian biaya (reimbursement) bagi Anda yang melakukan pelayanan kesehatan di jaringan non-medika seluruh Indonesia, Malaysia dan Singapura.

Pilihan lain yang diberikan oleh asuransi kesehatan Allianz Indonesia ialah Allianz SmartHealth Asuransi Kumpulan. Paket asuransi ini sangat cocok bagi perusahaan yang ingin memberi kenyamanan dengan cara memberi fasilitas perawatan kesehatan bagi karyawan beserta keluarganya. Untuk SmartHealth Classic Premier, fasilitas yang diberikan ialah perlindungan untuk biaya rawat inap serta biaya proses bersalin yang disertai manfaat pemeriksaan kontrol bagi ibu dan bayi selama 30 hari pasca melahirkan di Rumah Sakit. Sementara SmartHealt Blue Sapphire hanya memberi fasilitas rawat inap dan beberapa perlindungan tambahan lainnya. SmartHealth Light Titanium di sisi lain dirancang untuk membantu perusahaan memberikan perlindungan kesehatan. Sistem yang diterapkan Asuransi Kumpulan yaitu cashless khusus di Rumah Sakit atau Klinik Jaringan Allianz. Apabila biaya ternyata lebih besar dari tanggungan asuransi, maka peserta baru harus membayar kelebihan biaya tersebut. Untuk informasi yang lainnya. 
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Fasilitas yang disediakan asuransi kesehatan Allianz Indonesia lainnya ialah Allianz Asuransi Kesehatan Allisya Care.Asuransi ini dikelola secara syariah dimana terdapat sistem pembagian surplus underwriting bagi peserta asuransi yang tidak mengajukan klaim. Surplus yang dibagikan pada peserta tersebut diambil dari dana tabarru yang terkumpul. Fasilitas yang ditawarkan meliputi produk dasar rawat inap yang wajib diambil, serta produk tambahan seperti rawat jalan, melahirkan, rawat gigi dan santunan harian (opsional). Biaya akomodasi yang ditanggung tidak hanya akomodasi ruangan termasuk ICU, tetapi juga biaya obat-obatan selama perawatan dan biaya pemeriksaan diagnostik, serta biaya biaya administrasi. Sistem yang digunakan pada jenis asuransi kesehatan ini berbeda dengan lainnya, yaitu peserta wajib mengirimkan formulir klaim dan dokumen-dokumen penunjang untuk kemudian mendapat biaya ganti dari asuransi 14 hari setelah semua dokumen lengkap diterima pihak Allianz Indonesia.

Untuk mendaftarkan diri atau perusahaan Anda sebagai peserta asuransi kesehatan Allianz Indonesia, anda dapat datang langsung ke cabang-cabang kantor Allianz yang tersebar di berbagai kota di Indonesia. Anda juga dapat mengunduh brosur fasilitas asuransi di situs resmi Allianz Indonesia sebelum memutuskan jenis asuransi mana yang akan Anda pilih. Banyak orang telah bergabung dengan asuransi kesehatan Allianz, bandingkan dengan asuransi kesehatan lainnya.

If Money Doesn't Buy You Happiness, You're Not Spending It Right

A good chunk of traditional finance research teaches us how to make money, such as optimal investment strategies. But, there's very little on how to spend it. Studies show surprisingly little relationship between money and happiness. One interpretation is that things that make you truly happy can't be bought - but money can allow people to afford healthier food, better medical care, more varied pastimes, better education, and leisure time with friends and family. So an alternative interpretation is that people don't know how to spend it.

That's where behavioral economists and psychologists come in. Elizabeth Dunn (UBC), Daniel Gilbert (Harvard) and Timothy Wilson (Virginia)'s excellent Journal of Consumer Psychology article, "If Money Doesn't Make You Happy, Then You Probably Aren't Spending It Right" surveys a ton of research and distills it to eight succinct guidelines. I summarize five of them here.

1) Buy More Experiences and Fewer Material Goods.

People who fritter their money away on holidays or expensive dinners are seen as wasteful, as there's nothing to show for it afterwards. Renovating your house or buying a better car are more prudent. But, it's actually the former that has the greater effect than happiness. We adapt to things (such as a new conservatory or a flashier car) quickly. But, the memory of an experience (e.g. an African safari) remains with you long after the fact, and the anticipation of the experience also bring utility.

Moreover, "mindfulness" studies systematically find that unhappiness is correlated with mind-wandering. Experiences absorb you and keep you focused on the here and now, but you can be distracted by a dozen things while driving your car.

2) Spend Money on Others Rather Than Yourself.

Scientists believe that one major reason for humans' large brain size is that we are more social than nearly any other animal. Thus, our happiness depends markedly on the quality of our social relationships. The "prosocial behavior" literature consistently finds that subjects report greater happiness after spending money on others rather than themselves - even though they anticipated that they would be happier doing the latter.

3) Buy Many Small Pleasures Instead Of Few Large Ones.

A variety of frequently small pleasures (in the authors' words, "double lattes, uptown pedicures, and high thread-count socks") dominate one big-ticket purchase, such as a front-row concert ticket. This is the well-known economic principle of diminishing marginal utility - a two-week vacation is less enjoyable than two separate one-week vacations. Indeed, studies show that happiness is more associated with the frequency rather than intensity of experiences.

The main reason is the surprise factor of a new experience. Two smaller vacations allow you to explore two different places. Moreover, variety exists even for "everyday" experiences - a beer after work is never the same as the last one, since it will feature different people and different conversations.

4) Buy Less Insurance

This principle doesn't just apply to literal insurance, e.g. over-priced extensive warranties, but also the "insurance" that comes with a generous return policy. Customers prefer Amazon to eBay and Craigslist, despite it being more expensive, because of the option to return a product they don't like. But, as Dan Gilbert discussed in his excellent TED talk The Surprising Science of Happiness (see here for my list of top ten TED talks), whether we like something or not doesn't just depend on the item's attributes - we can consciously choose to like it. Indeed, studies show that you like an item more if you don't have the option to return it.

5) Beware of Comparison Shopping

Websites allow you to compare products on tiny details, which leads to consumers fixating on very small differences and ignoring the similarities on the major characteristics. They can thus miss the forest for the trees and choose the wrong product based on a minor attribute. In addition, doing so wastes substantial time on minutiae, particularly since we typically grow to end up liking the product we buy anyway if its major characteristics are correct (see point 4).